“We’re going to see a very significant market share shift over the next four years driven by very distinct differences in powertrain strategies,” Murphy said.
Automakers are also aggressively pursuing the crossover segment, particularly at the premium price point. This will likely pressure that segment’s profitability in the next few years.
Crossover launches will account for 52 percent of new volume over the next four model years, with light trucks accounting for 20 percent, the study forecast.
Honda and Toyota are best positioned in traditional replacement rates. However, GM, and to a lesser extent VW, are well-positioned in powertrain investment and EV introductions.
Ford and GM lag the industry replacement rate, but Ford is slightly ahead on a reaccelerated product cadence.
The Japanese OEMs have a volatile product cadence, and with differentiated segment focus, compared with the rest of the industry. Honda and Toyota lead the industry in their anticipated rates of model replacement while Nissan lags.
European automakers as a group, and the Koreans, are lagging the industry average on model replacement, according to the study.